is at ten-week lows, but one longtime analyst is telling investors to ignore the “panic.”
In a Twitter update on May 25, Philip Swift, creator of data resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, eyed a BTC price breakout still in progress.
Swift: “Bitcoin performing well and as expected”
Bitcoin has not traded this low since mid-March, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows — and despite residing in a range just $4,000 wide since, cold feet are everywhere.
“A lot of panic in the market today,” Swift summarized.
BTC/USD is currently testing the mettle of key moving averages, as Cointelegraph reported, against a backdrop of traders’ downside targets extending to $25,000 and below.
Even Swift believes that Bitcoin could still return to as low as $20,000 in the coming months, despite remaining bullish on higher timeframes.
Nonetheless, when looking at realized price, the picture is clear when it comes to Bitcoin’s long-term strength.
“Zooming out, bitcoin is actually performing well and as expected for this stage of cycle. A clear BTC breakout above Realized Price,” he added.
Realized price refers to the aggregate price at which the BTC supply last moved. It currently sits at just above $20,000, according to LookIntoBitcoin.
An accompanying chart showed the cycles Swift refers to, these beginning each time spot price breaks above the realized price line. In each case, real BTC/USD upside kicked in 140 days afterward.
Bitcoin realized price annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ Twitter
“Big moves are coming”
Another glimmer of hope comes from trader activity this week.
Related: $160K at next halving? Model counts down to new Bitcoin all-time high
As noted by Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, market participants are increasingly showing signs of “exhaustion.”
Checkmate referenced the Sell-side Risk Ratio metric, which is now approaching its lowest-ever recorded levels.
Despite realized price lying far below spot, no one is interested in selling at current prices, he inferred, whether or not they are in profit on their particular investment.
“This usually occurs when sellers are exhausted on both sides, suggesting big moves are coming,” part of comments on May 24 read.
Sell-side risk was last this low in late 2015, at the beginning of Bitcoin’s run to its previous halving cycle’s all-time highs of $20,000 in December 2017.