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29 September 2023
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Bitcoin Patterns Mirror Early Days of Epic 4,400% Rally, According to Digital Asset Manager Grayscale

Digital Asset Manager Grayscale says current investment patterns in Bitcoin mirror trends present in early 2016, when BTC kicked off an astronomical 4,400% rally to its all-time high in less than two years.

Phil Bonello, Grayscale’s director of research, reports that there is a growing number of investors holding on to their Bitcoin. In Grayscale’s Holder vs. Speculator Index, the percentage of holder coins – BTC that have not moved in one to three years – is on the up and up. Meanwhile, the percentage of speculator coins – BTC that have moved in the last 90 days – is on a decline, much like in 2016.

Source: Grayscale

According to Bonello, an increase in holder coins is a potential bullish indicator, while an increase in speculator coins looks bearish. 

Bonello also notes that there has never been a higher level of Bitcoin held for more than one year.

“This metric indicates a strong conviction in Bitcoin by its current investor base. While this is a supply-side metric, it also demonstrates the demand for Bitcoin’s use case as a store of value – rather than trading, it appears investors are interested in holding Bitcoin despite its volatility…

This report is intended to help investors visualize why Bitcoin may be more important than ever; we explore Bitcoin’s value indicators, delineate its substantial supply/demand imbalance, and extrapolate how these factors may create a tailwind for Bitcoin’s adoption and price. This analysis indicates that the current Bitcoin market structure parallels that of early 2016 before it began its historic bull run.”

Source: Grayscale

The researcher does caution that significant off-chain activity may decrease the efficacy of these metrics.

Bitcoin’s price in January 2016 stood at about $434. In less than 24 months, the king crypto went on to skyrocket over 4,431%, en route to its all-time-high of $19,665, according to CoinGecko.

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