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6 June 2023
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC/USD stuck under $10,000, on-chain data shows its maturing as an asset

  • Glassnode on-chain data shows that 78.9% of all Bitcoin addresses are currently in profit.
  •  Matt D’Souza, the CEO of Blockware solutions believes correlation with the stocks is not entirely a bad thing.
  • Retail investors and traders are likely to hold onto the asset (Bitcoin) that makes them money.

Bitcoin’s recent fall to $8,900 must-have allowed more investors to join the market. However, the king of cryptocurrencies has continued to struggle with the resistance at $9,500 and $9,600 respectively. For gains towards the critical $10,000, these two zones need to flip from resistances to support areas. Bitcoin is also struggling to decouple from the stock markets. However. Some correlation still exists considering the fall on Monday that happened in tandem with S&P 500 futures. According to a Twitter thread by Matt D’Souza, the CEO of Blockware solutions:

What is fascinating about BTC are the multiple short-term correlations that emerge. We have witnessed strong, short term correlations to Gold, to USD/CNY, and most recently US Equities. this signals an expanded breadth of market participants owning Bitcoin.

D’Souza’s opinion regarding the correlation with the stocks and the US securities is such that Bitcoin is getting more attention from the institutional investors as well as retail portfolios. In other words, “Each correlation indicates a different use case – Digital Gold, Vehicle for Capital Flight, Risk-On Asset (Disruptive Technology).”

BTC Vs S&P 500

Bitcoin investors remain bullish

Global equity markets are beginning to recover from the pandemic-triggered market crash. It is also essential to note that Bitcoin investors are also profiting from the recovery witnessed since March in spite of the price struggling to recover above $10,000. Data by Glassnode, an on-chain analysis platform shows that 78.9% of Bitcoin addresses are now profitable. The percentage is arrived at by using a metric that takes into account the time the Bitcoin wallets received the coins the current price of Bitcoin. This way Glassnode is able to tall if the holder is in profit or loss.

D’Souza believes that the retail investors and even traders are unlikely to dump Bitcoin in order to recover from the losses accrued in the traditional markets. However, they will tend to hold onto the assets that make them money.

The way retail/traders operate is once they go underwater they’re overwhelmed and upset so once they hit breakeven they sell and are relieved. This creates what’s called ‘overhead supply’. But if everyone is a winner then they’re holding and enjoying the ride and the asset moves up quicker. So the more winners the better the asset moves higher without people sitting around trying to get out at breakeven and creating selling pressure.

Bitcoin price analysis

Looking at the daily confluence levels, Bitcoin is facing resistance at $9,466. This zone is highlighted by the SMA 50 4-hour, SMA 200 1-hour, and the Bollinger Band 1-hour upper curve. A break above $9,600 must brace for another strong barrier at $9,662.69 as shown by the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and the SMA 100 4-hour.

On the downside, the digital asset expects support at $9,368 as highlighted by the Bollinger Band 15-minutes lower curve, the previous 4-hour, the Bollinger Band 4-hour middle curve, the SMA 50 15-minutes and SMA 100 1-hour. Other lower support levels include $9,270 and $9,075.02.

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