Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $27,390.15 after surging by 4.8 percent in the last 24 hours. In the last seven days, the asset has surged by 35 percent, however, it is still 61 percent down from its all-time high of $69,045.00 recorded in 2022. While the series of pullbacks that caused the significant fall has been linked to macroeconomic events and liquidity issues forcing some heavyweight crypto firms to file for bankruptcy, crypto analyst and trader Rekt Capital believes that the market only went through its normal cycle.
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin follows structured events that repeat patterns. Bitcoin usually records an all-time high after each halving, then pulls back to form lows per a macro downtrend until another halving occurs. This pattern is said to have played out successfully twice in a row. It can be recalled that Bitcoin formed lows in 2015 for 366 days before the 2016 halving. Similarly, it formed another low for 399 days in 2019 before the 2020 halving. The next having is about 396 days away, and if the setup plays again, the same pattern would be repeated.
Rekt’s in-depth analysis of the 2012 and 2016 Bitcoin halving
Rekt also observed that the price floors are usually followed by a rally as the event draws near. Months ago, the analyst explained that 2024 is the candle 4 of Bitcoin’s current cycle, and 2023 is the third. According to him, this year is supposed to be a bottoming candle. However, it can still generate some decent upside. In comparison, candle 3 in 2015 saw a 234 percent price surge. Also, candle 3 in 2019 saw a 316 percent surge. This year, being another candle 3 can record a stronger upside after the long pullback according to Rekt.
Bitcoin halving has historically proven to be an important catalyst that prepares the market for a new bull run. Bitcoin has surged by 12,000 percent-13,000 percent in each of the 2012 and 2016 halvings. In the 2012 halving, it took the asset 513 days to surge by 13,000 percent. In the 2016 halving, it took Bitcoin 1068 days to surge by 12,000 percent.
In a 2019 article, Rekt explains that there is a pre-Halving retrace that occurs as a bear trap for many investors. Before the 2012 halving, the pre-halving retrace occurred over 100 days before the halving. This was about a 50 percent pullback and lasted for only 2 days. In the 2016 event, the pre-halving retrace occurred 24 days before the halving. It lasted 44 days and continued 20 days after the halving. It is important to note that there is a pre-halving price surge before a pre-halving retrace.
What to expect before the 2024 halving?
Based on Rekt’s in-depth analysis of the 2012 and the 2016 halving, a pre-halving retrace would possibly occur after the upside in candle 3 of the current Bitcoin cycle before the halving in April 2024.