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29 September 2023
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How Bitcoin Plummets Following An Exchange Hack

Bitcoin price volatility has crashed in the last 12 months as the bear market killed off the speculative frenzy.

Daily volatility, the spread between the price high and price low, stood at $61 yesterday – down a hefty 98 percent from the figure of $3,468 observed on Jan. 16, 2018 – according to CoinMarketCap data. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s price is also down 74 percent year-on-year. Generally, with a sharp drop in price, volatility in dollar terms tends to fall in parallel.

Notably, volatility was extremely high in percentage terms 12 months ago. The trading range was 26 percent on Jan. 16, 2018, indicating that the crypto market frenzy was at its peak.

Volatility, however, subsided as the year progressed: dropping from $973 in the first quarter to $345, $245 and $195, in the following quarters, respectively. Meanwhile, in percentage terms, average daily volatility fell from 9.14 percent to 3.6 percent over 2018.

This year has begun on a much more calm note. Daily volatility has remained largely below $200 and hit a 2.5-month low of $45.17 on Jan. 12. Many consider the slide in volatility a sign of speculative froth leaving the market and the cryptocurrency nearing a bottom.

It is worth noting that an extended period of low volatility usually ends up paving way for a big move. Therefore, BTC could soon violate the six-day-long trading range of $3,500 to $3,700.

Moreover, a range breakdown looks likely as the long-term technical charts are biased toward the bears. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $3,585 on Bitstamp.

Weekly chart

As seen above, BTC fell 13 percent last week, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the descending 10-week moving average, currently at $3,919.

The outlook remains bearish as long as BTC is held below the 10-week MA.

4-hour and daily chart

BTC has created a neutral diamond pattern on the 4-hour chart. The prospects of BTC breaking the $3,700-$3,500 range to the downside would rise significantly if the diamond is breached on the lower side.

The relative strength index (RSI) is biased bearish at 41. So, there is plenty scope for a sell-off post-breakdown.

Put simply, the prospects of BTC breaching the $3,700-$3,500 range to the downside would rise significantly if the diamond breakdown is confirmed.

  • BTC is more likely to see a downside break of the $3,700-$3,500 range.
  • $4,000 would be back on the table if BTC defies the bearish setup on the long term charts with a move above $3,700.

Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; price charts by Trading View

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

This article is intended as a news item to inform our readers of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of the cryptocurrency described above. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and it does not provide, sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision, and you should not rely on this information for that purpose. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.


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