After a brutal liquidation event in March on the back of pandemic fears, both Bitcoin and stocks have mounted an impressive comeback.
Yet it is cryptocurrencies that are leading the pack, posting a strong performance in one of the worst economies since the Great Depression.
The leading cryptocurrency is up more than 150% from the lows of $3,700. And the tech-heavy stock index, the Nasdaq, is up about 40% from its March lows and has actually registered a positive performance on the year.
Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq 100 chart since the start of 2020. Source: TradingView.com
Investors expect BTC’s outperformance to continue, according to a recent poll. But do analysts think it will?
BITCOIN COULD HIT $11,000 BEFORE THE NASDAQ HITS 11K
Due to a boost in demand for digital goods and services since the pandemic began, technology stocks have seen momentous performances over recent months.
Video communications firm Zoom is up by over 220% since the start of the year. Big-cap firms like Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft have all gained in excess of 10% since the start of the year.
This has resulted in a surge in the Nasdaq index past 10,000 points — the highest reading ever and a sign of the analog-to-digital transition. With Bitcoin also trading in the $10,000 range, there have been some comparing the two measures.
According to an impromptu poll by digital asset commentator and investor Maple Leaf Capital, 43% of 130 respondents see BTC rallying to $11,000 before the Nasdaq hits 11,000 points.
A mere 16% of the respondents to the poll expect the Nasdaq to make the jump first.
BEARISH ECONOMIC TRENDS COULD CRUSH STOCKS — AND CRYPTO
But 41% of the respondents said that neither will hit 11,000 points. And there may be validity in that sentiment.
Despite a number of top analysts on Wall Street turning bearish, the economic trends are far from bullish.
The Federal Reserve revealed this week that it is projecting a 6.5% national GDP drop over the course of 2020, which would be the biggest drop in decades. “This is the biggest economic shock, in the U.S. and in the world, really, in living memory,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said.
Economic data does not equal asset price action but the two are somewhat linked: low GDP means firms are making less money, which may beget even less spending as debt unwinds, then stocks drop to become fairly valued.
Bitcoin could follow stocks lower should this scenario play out. As BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes said:
“Bitcoin will be owned unlevered. Could the price retest $3,000? Absolutely. As the SPX rolls over and tests 2,000 expect all asset classes to puke again. As violent as the Q1 collapse in asset values was, we have almost 100 years of imbalances to unwind the ancien régime.”