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27 September 2023
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High Bitcoin Hodling Behaviour in 2020 Indicates an Upcoming Bull Run

  • Glassnode data indicates strong holdling tendency among Bitcoiners which is the highest in 3 years.
  • Several investors have stopped trading Bitcoin, following a buy-and-hold strategy.
  • Bitcoin’s relative strength index was strikingly similar to its performance after the 2016.

An interesting indication in crypto-verse suggests that a large number of investors have stopped trading Bitcoin, and are preferring to hold it instead. For example, Glassnode data reveals that about 8 million Bitcoin tokens have not moved in at least three years, which comprises 44% of the total cryptocurrency supply, a level attained for the first time in three years.

Recently, the number of cryptocurrency addresses holding over 1,000 Bitcoins increased sharply to approximately 2,088, a trend which appeared shortly after Bitcoin price crashed to $3,600 in March. On similar notes, another report also notes that Bitcoin’s relative strength index was strikingly similar to its performance after the 2016 block subsidy halving, which witnessed an all-time high of $20,000 a year later.

If past records are to be trusted, investors displaying aggressive accumulation of the cryptocurrency is typically indicative of a new bull cycle. Whenever the number of addresses holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin declined, the price of Bitcoin too, fell.


The Hodling Sentiment

The tendency to hodl Bitcoin started gaining traction in the late 2019s, perhaps in anticipation of securing both long- and short-term profits which led traders to buy the dips.

Despite a steady rise in BTC/USD exchange rate post 2019 December, the cryptocurrency failed to sustain its uptick against the detrimental effects of Covid 19. The cryptocurrency crashed alongside the global markets in March, including gold and stocks, especially after the declaration of a lockdown.


Bull Run of Bitcoin

The Glassnode chart above indicates that the hodling sentiment​ is not so weak after all.  Investors caught the Bitcoin’s drop, supported by central banks’ open-ended incentive policies. Therefore, the cryptocurrency went up by over 200%, closing above its prior year-to-date high to get to $12,486 on August 17.

The Bitcoin market has delivered profits to users on 98% of all days since 2013, according to UTXO data by Glassnode, which is typically characteristic of a bull run. Experts too, feel the same way. CryptoQuant CEO Ki-Young Ju tweeted that the next big Bitcoin crash seemed improbable, as unlike in March, exchanges don’t have as many Bitcoins waiting to be sold as that day. Moving on, Konstantin Anissimov, the executive director of CEX.io, noted that their monthly signups increased by 80% in the first half of 2020, which also boosted trading activities.

Poll shows 72% Bitcoiners want to hodl

A twitter poll created by ‘Plan B’ asked: When would people sell Bitoin, even if its price doesn’t increase sharply in the next years? The options included BTC<$6000  which received 16.2% votes, BTC <$3000 which received 5.95 votes and BTC<$1000 which received 5.8% votes. With 72% votes, the winning category was ‘Never, I ride it to $0.’ Around 22,635 users took part in this poll, and results went on to show the frenzy of Bitcoiners when it comes to the king of cryptocurrencies.

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